Part 2 of a 2 Part Series
By: Jorge Olivieri, Bacalao AI
In Part 1 of our two-part series, we explored the rumors and early indicators suggesting that Apple is preparing to make a significant move into the smart home and small-to-medium business security market, possibly introducing its own video doorbells, cameras, or even fully integrated alarm systems.
Now, in Part 2, we’re zooming out to look at the broader industry picture: how Apple might enter this market, their potential strategy upon their entrance, and the effect it could have on how alarm dealers and integrators could approach their existing and potential customers. There’s plenty to unpack, and even more reason to keep your eyes on what’s going on in Cupertino, CA.
Waiting for the Right Moment
One hallmark of Apple’s approach is entering a market “late” but with a tightly integrated hardware-software model. We saw this with the iPhone, Apple Watch, and, more recently with HomePod and AirPods. Each time, Apple wasn’t the first mover—but once it arrived, it changed consumer expectations by blending hardware, software, and services into a polished ecosystem.
While Apple typically offers a smooth, DIY-friendly setup, there are whispers that the company acknowledges pro-installation scenarios. For high-end homes or small-medium sized businesses (SMBs), Apple might accommodate professional integrators or specialized networks—though likely with Apple maintaining strict hardware and software standards.
Models in The Market
The “one-app solution” has become a holy grail in smart security by virtue of unifying cameras, sensors, and automation in a single interface. Two models illustrate how this can work. The first is under a “Platform Model where the SaaS partners with various manufacturers (panels, sensors, cameras). This model is highly flexible and is adopted by hundreds of independent security dealers although user experience can vary.
The second is an “Integrated Model” whish is where the vertically integrated provider designs both the hardware and software. This yields a polished user experience, reminiscent of Apple products, but locks users into its proprietary ecosystem.
If Apple enters the fray, expect an approach closer to the Integrated Model. Apple’s emphasis on tight integration and premium hardware points toward a unified “Apple ecosystem,” where cameras, sensors, alerts, and Siri live within the Home app (and likely watchOS)..
How Apple Could Shake Things Up
Apple’s power lies in raising user expectations. From day one, it could integrate AI-based on-device processing, robust encryption, and iCloud+ for video storage—leaving some customers to wonder why they can’t get the same sophistication elsewhere.
That said, Apple’s system might initially miss certain specialized security features (like specialized commercial sensors) or professional monitoring. It will also likely come with a premium price tag. Even so, Apple’s presence alone might push other players to accelerate their own AI and UI improvements.
Will Apple sell its security solution directly or partner with existing security providers for distribution and monitoring?
Historically, Apple has preferred going directly to the consumer by selling through its own stores and website. This has allowed them to proprietarily control hardware, software, and brand experience. However, Apple has pursued partnerships in areas requiring outside expertise, think Apple Card with Goldman Sachs.
With that said, a hybrid approach is likely. Launch direct first, then selectively partner with pro monitoring or more complex installations. A case example is mirroring the Apple Watch strategy of forging alliances only after a strong standalone debut.
Additionally, partnering with alarm dealers and integrators would cover obvious blind-spots like professional monitoring and handling complex installations at scale.
The Ripple Effect for Alarm Dealers
Small to mid-sized businesses often use “light commercial” security solutions. Apple’s brand appeal and integrated approach could entice SMBs already reliant on iPhones, iPads, or Macs. The potential upside of a simpler setup, ease of remote monitoring, and possible AI-driven insights (like real-time alerts or facial recognition after hours) would lend an appeal of a seamless Apple solution that may feel “good enough” for many SMBs—potentially bypassing local security dealers.
Some patents hint that Apple is on the cusp of enabling professional integration with “pro-friendly” features, which would place some level of impetus on dealers to pivot into offering “Apple+Security” packages for higher-end homes or businesses.
Under this scenario, dealers on the local and regional level might need to adopt AI-forward platforms or a deeper version of HomeKit. Consequently, platforms like Alarm.com or Resideo may feel competitive pressure if Apple launches its own solution.
AI as Apple’s Differentiator
Just as Apple embedded on-device AI in iPhones, it aims for a privacy-first, integrated AI approach in home security. But developing advanced, reliable AI takes time, and Apple is known for delaying hardware if the underlying technology isn’t up to standard of launch. Its broader AI roadmap (including a smarter Siri) has seen delays to 2026, which might push back a security product release.
Conclusion: A (Potentially) Transformative Shift
Based on acquisitions, patents, and nods to pro installers, signs point to Apple jumping into the home and SMB security market. While exact timing remains uncertain, a 2025–2026 window aligned with Apple’s AI ramp-up and the current full integration of ADT-Google’s makes this all seems plausible.
Ultimately, Apple’s rumored entry underscores the broader push toward unified and intelligent security solutions. Whether it’s Apple or another tech giant, an AI-driven, one-app future seems inevitable which would likely spur a new wave of innovation. The security space is poised to get more competitive, more dynamic, and possibly more rewarding for those who adapt effectively.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jorge Olivieri is a seasoned strategic sales expert with over twenty years of experience in enhancing sales growth and broadening client bases across diverse industries. In addition to running his own business for a decade, Jorge also most recently was with Alarm. Com. Fluent in English and Spanish, Jorge is known for his strategic sales approaches, strong client relationship skills, and a robust understanding of market trends and technologies.