On 16 September 2013, Aaron Alexis conducted a mass shooting in Building 197 at the Washington Navy Yard. He was a lone shooter killed by police after killing 12 and injuring eight.
There were former instances of misconduct and mental issues. These are not considered in issue of Common Access Card (CAC) or clearance. There were poor installation access control and building security procedures seen as contributing factors.
The Attack and Defense Scenarios analyze two main issues. Issue 1: • Could the attack have been substantially more lethal if the shooter had pre-planned and pre-positioned additional key attack elements thereby increasing the efficiency of the attack? • Could the attack be a diversionary tactic to draw attention away from the true reason, data breach of classified information?
Issue 2: • Could the risk of an attack been reduced through a layered defense implementation of X-ray machine/metal detector suites, more security cameras with facial recognition capabilities, and increased access controls (biometrics or improved identification badging)?
Analysis of the issues result in the following risk assessment values: • Initial Risk Assessment (Baseline) = 18% • Attack Boost (Worst Case) = 12% increase • Defense Boost (Best Case) = 14% decrease • After applying the Ryan-Nichols Equation the NET value requires $2.28Million dollars to mitigate the risk of the attack •
Implementation of multi-layered defense with enhanced access control systems and procedures are recommended
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